Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
